000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED N OF 06N ALONG 79.5W AND HAS BEEN 
MOVING W AT 13 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BUT CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED OVER 
THE PAC AT THE MOMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED FROM 06N TO 16N ALONG 104.5W AND 
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W AT 13 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS 
NOTED FROM 09N TO 17N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N80W TO 12N100W TO 06N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 04N 
BETWEEN 81W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
11N95W TO 09N119W THEN NARROWS TO WITHIN 15 NM OF LINE FROM 
07N127W TO 05N140W.  

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N137W TO 28N143W THEN S 
INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 19N148W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 29N126W WITH A RIDGE W TO 28N137W AND A RIDGE ESE 
TO NEAR 24N109W. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER OLD MEXICO NEAR 29N106W 
IS MOVING SW WITH TIME WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 
24M110W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED ALONG THE RIDGE AND E OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W COAST OF OLD MEXICO AND THE BAJA 
PENINSULA...BUT MOSTLY TO THE S OF 24N. S OF THIS RIDGE FROM 22N 
TO 13N...THE UPPER LEVEL E WINDS ARE ADVECTING THE DEBRIS 
MOISTURE W TO ABOUT 127W. OTHERWISE VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES 
THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 22N W OF 110W AND N OF 12N W OF 132W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANTS OF TS ISELLE AT ARE AT 
13.5N124W AND ESTIMATED AT 1011 MB AND THE LOW CONTINUES MOVING 
W AT 10 KT. CONVECTION FLARES INTERMITTENTLY SW OF THE CENTER. 
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND LOSE IDENTITY IN ABOUT 36 
HOURS. LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED N OF 18N W OF 117W.

SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 9 FEET ARE LOCATED S OF 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 
122W AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BUT SEAS TO 7 FT ARE 
ALREADY ARRIVING AT COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 93W.

$$
NELSON