000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N-16N ALONG 103W MOVING WNW ABOUT 
13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
360 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-16N...AND WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE
WAVE FROM 14N-16N. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF DISTURBED DEPICTED BY BROAD CYCLONIC TURING OF LOW AND MID 
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 97W-106W. THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT 
IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING WHERE RATHER MODERATE TO 
STRONG E-SE WINDS WERE REVEALED.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG IS CENTERED ALONG 8N80W 11N94W
11N106W 10N115W 8N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
80W-86W AND 105W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60-90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-119W

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...

RATHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM FAR 
WESTERN TEXAS NEAR 32N103W TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
OVER THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 30N105W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE CYCLONE TO 26N110W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
MOVING SSE IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING ENE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO 29N119W. UPPER
LEVEL N-NE WINDS ARE SEEN ON UPPER AIR DATA BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF 
THE TROUGH IS AIDING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION JUST ALONG AND W OF THE MEXICAN COAST TO 110W FROM 
20N-23N. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE 
SE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NE IN ABOUT 
48-72 HOURS.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS SE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N122W TO 23N115W. STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AND SE 
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THESE SAME WINDS ARE HINDERING THE 
TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED DESCRIBED ABOVE 
FROM ORGANIZING TOO SOON. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
BEING ADVECTED BY THESE WINDS WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH/SOUTH 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

W OF 120W...

THIS AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED BY BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 30N140W
TO 26N125W. RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS AS NOTED BY A LAYER OF 
OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SSW N OF LINE 19N120W 
THE REMNANT LOW OF ISELLE LOCATED NEAR 14N124W 1011 MB MOVING 
W 8 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CONSISTING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS 
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 121W-128W. INTERMITTENT MOSTLY ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT. NM 
OF 13N1267W. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED AN AREA OF 
N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 270 NM NW QUADRANTS. 
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN WSW TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES EXPECTED.
 
IN REFERENCE TO HIGH SEAS FORECAST...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY 
SWELLS UP TO 9 FT CONTINUE TO THE S OF 9N BETWEEN 92W-122W. 
THESE SWELLS SHOULD THROUGH 48 HOURS S OF 9N BETWEEN 100W-128W.
SOME OF THIS SWELL TRAIN MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SE MEXICAN
COAST BEGINNING ON FRI.

$$
AGUIRRE