000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU AUG 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N-16N ALONG 102W MOVING W ABOUT 13 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 13N-16N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-15N. BROAD CYCLONIC TURING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS BEING NOTICED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 97W-103W. THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1220 UTC THIS MORNING WHERE RATHER MODERATE TO STRONG E-SE WINDS WERE SEEN. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 10N91W 9N105W 10N112W 9N120W 8N131W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FORM 5N-10N BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150-240 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W-112W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... RATHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE REGION FROM FAR WESTERN TEXAS NEAR 32N103W TO NW MEXICO AT 25N109W. TO ITS NW ...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING SE IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N116.5W. SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS REVEAL UPPER LEVEL NLY WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING OFF CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 21N-23N W TO 110W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TRANSPOSE INTO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE TEXAS-MEXICAN BORDER DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS SE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 25N121W SE THROUGH 24N117W TO 22N111W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH...AND SE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY THESE WINDS WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH/SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. W OF 120W... THIS AREA IS GENERALLY COVERED BY BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 30N140W TO 26N125W. RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS AS NOTED BY A LAYER OF OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MOVING SSW N OF LINE 19N120W THE REMNANT LOW OF ISELLE LOCATED NEAR 14N123W 1011 MB IS MOVING SW 5-10 KT. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONSISTING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 120W-127W. INTERMITTENT MOSTLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N1267W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1400 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 270 NM NW QUADRANTS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN WSW TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITH IT CURRENT TREND IN CONVECTION AND IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION. IN REFERENCE TO HIGH SEAS FORECAST...CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS UP TO 9 FT CONTINUE TO THE S OF 9N BETWEEN 85W-120W. THESE SWELLS SHOULD THROUGH 48 HOURS S OF 9N BETWEEN 100W-128W. SOME OF THIS SWELL TRAIN MAY IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SE MEXICAN COAST BEGINNING ON FRI. $$ AGUIRRE