000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU AUG 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED N OF 06N ALONG 99.5W AND ESTIMATED TO 
BE MOVING W AT 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED W OF THE WAVE AT 
09N100.5W WITH STRONG CONVECTION ENHANCED WITHIN 75 NM OF THIS 
POSITION. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 08N105W TO 08N120W TO 
06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 12.5N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 06N88W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 
11N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 07.5N107.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MEXICO WITH AN AXIS ALONG 
A LINE 32N107W TO 25N108W TO 20N113W. THE TROUGH IS CONFINED TO 
OVER MEXICO. DRY AND CLOUD FREE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE WEST 
OF THE AXIS AND EAST OF THE AXIS MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MEXICAN 
COAST FROM 21N TO 25N.

ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 12N BROAD MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW IS NOTED. THE AREA NORTH OF ABOUT 25N IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED 
IN THE AREA FROM 18N TO 26N FROM 115W TO 310W AND ALSO NORTH OF 
28N EAST OF 128W. REMAINDER OF THE PACIFIC NORTH OF ITCZ IS 
COVERED BY BROKEN TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS.

SOUTH OF 12N BROAD MIDDLE AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED.

THE REMNANT LOW OF ISELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 14N122W AND IS MOVING 
SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1011 
MB. INTERMITTENT MOSTLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM 
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH 
AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

WEAK RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF THE REMNANT LOW OF ISELLE. ELSEWHERE 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.
 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 9 FEET ARE LOCATED S OF 11N OF 11N BETWEEN 
80W AND 120W. ASSOCIATED S SWELLS TO 7 FT SHOULD ARRIVE TO THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AT 100W ON SAT MORNING. 

$$
LL