000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU AUG 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED N OF 06N ALONG 99.5W AND ESTIMATED TO 
BE MOVING W AT 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED W OF THE WAVE AT 
09N100.5W WITH STRONG CONVECTION ENHANCED WITHIN 75 NM OF THIS 
POSITION. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N78W TO 11N93W TO 09N110W TO 
010N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 07N78W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N86W TO 09N112W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N140W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE 
AT 17N144W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N121W 
WITH A RIDGE W TO 28N132W AND A RIDGE E TO NEAR 20N100W. 
CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED ALONG THE W COAST OF OLD MEXICO TO THE S 
OF 28N. S OF THIS RIDGE...FROM 25N TO 15N...UPPER LEVEL E WINDS 
ARE ADVECTING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE W ALONG 18N TO NEAR 122W. 
VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 27N AND S 
OF 27N W OF 135W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMNANTS OF TS ISELLE AT ARE AT 
14.5N122W AND ESTIMATED AT 1011 MB. CONVECTION FLARES 
INTERMITTENTLY W OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW 
AND LOSE IDENTITY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. LOCALLY BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED N OF 16N W OF 116W.

SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 9 FEET ARE LOCATED S OF 11N OF 11N BETWEEN 
80W AND 120W. ASSOCIATED S SWELLS TO 7 FT SHOULD ARRIVE TO THE 
COAST OF MEXICO AT 100W ON SAT MORNING. 

$$
NELSON