000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ALONG 98W N OF 05N. A 
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1245 UTC SHOWS A CLEAR TURNING IN THE WIND 
FIELD N OF 11N FROM NE AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO E TO SE BEHIND IT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 180 NM W AND 120 NM E OF THIS WAVE FROM 05N TO 11N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE LINE....11N85W TO 09N106W TO 10N123W TO 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN 
BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 05N83W TO 07N88W TO 
08N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND WITHIN 
15 NM OF 17N104W AND 19N110W.


...DISCUSSION...

1011 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM AT 16N121W...THE REMNANT OF 
ISELLE...CONTINUES TO BE WELL DEFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A 
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1426 UTC REVEALED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS PERSIST 
WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY WITH 
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD PERSIST AND 
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHED OVER N WATERS IS WEAKENING. 
THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE BEHIND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY N OF 
25N TODAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH E INTO NORTH 
AMERICA AND THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N117W...JUST W OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...MOVES W. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACT TO WEAKEN 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE REGION N OF 20N AND W OF 114W IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. EAST OF 
114W MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT WITH 
AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHOULD PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
CURRENTLY OVER N WATERS MOVES OVER THE ANTICYCLONE AND DIGS S 
INTO NW AND N CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES E OF 11W TO THE MEXICAN COAST 
BETWEEN 17N AND 23N.

SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 9 FEET ARE LOCATED S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 
125W. SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 FT OVER THE NEXT DAY 
OR TWO.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK