000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE LINE....9N78W TO 10N89W TO 08N100W TO 
10N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS  WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 89W TO 
108W.


...DISCUSSION...

LOW 16N121W...THE REMNANT OF ISELLE...CONTINUES TO BE WELL 
DEFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0455 UTC REVEALED 
20 TO 25 KT WINDS PERSIST WITHIN 180 NM NW QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE 
LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM W QUADRANT. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS 
UNLIKELY WITH EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND MARGINAL SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE...BUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD 
PERSIST AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 23N142W IS 
SEPARATING FROM ITS WEAKENING PARENT TROUGH STRETCHED OVER N 
WATERS. THIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE BEHIND MORE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
ENERGY N OF 25N TODAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH 
E INTO NORTH AMERICA AND THE ANTICYCLONE ALONG 25N JUST W OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES W. THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ACT TO 
WEAKEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGING. THE REGION N OF 20N AND W OF 113W 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY 
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. EAST OF 
113W MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT WITH 
AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHOULD PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
CURRENTLY OVER N WATERS MOVES OVER THE ANTICYCLONE AND DIGS S 
INTO NW AND N CENTRAL MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY LIES WITHIN 210 NM OF THE MEXICAN 
COAST FROM 16N TO 23N.

SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 9 FEET ARE LOCATED S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 
125W. SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 FT OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK