000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE LINE....06N77W TO 08N100W TO 11N120W TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE POINT 13N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 89W TO 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

LOW 16N120W...THE REMNANT OF ISELLE...CONTINUES TO BE WELL 
DEFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION 
TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 16.5N123W. 
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE WOULD INDICATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT 
REGENERATE BUT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE 
SLOWLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS.

WEAKENING MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 31N110W 
TO 25N130W TO 22N135W TO 13N135W TO 13N140W. THE AREA IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MOSTLY BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND A 
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. EAST OF 
110W MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OBSERVED WITH AREAS OF 
MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF THE REMNANT OF ISELLE. 
ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 8 FEET ARE LOCATED S OF 05N BETWEEN 95W AND 
125W. SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 FT OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS.

$$
LL