000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190913 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 06N100W TO 11N115W TO 11N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 06.5N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FOLLOWING POINTS 06.5N90.5W AND 10N87W AND 08N95W AND 11N129W. ...DISCUSSION... LOW...REMNANT OF ISELLE...18N119W 1009 MB MOVE SW 5-10 KNOTS. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALOFT HAS PREVENTED CONVECTION TO ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 18N120.5W. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N115W TO 20N130W TO 11N130W TO 10N140W. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 129W ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROUGH AREA PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE THE FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS DOMINATED BY LARGE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS ARE IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE ITCZ OR NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N140W. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE REMNANT OF ISELLE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED. LARGE LONG PERIOD SLY SWELLS MOVE ACROSS EQUATOR INTO EPAC S OF 05N BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. $$ LL