000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ ALONG LINE...08N83W TO 12N104W TO 11N115W TO 12N129W TO 
10N134W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM S OF AXIS E OF 96W AND WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS W OF 126W.

...DISCUSSION...
LOW PRES...REMNANT OF ISELLE...AT 19N118W 1009 MB DRIFTING W-SW. 
VERY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LACKS POWER TO ATTRACT 
DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS CENTER...BUT STILL SHOWS DISTINCTLY ON 
SAT IMAGES.  CONTINUOUS ELY WIND SHEAR ALOFT HAS CARRIED 
CONVECTION OVER 120 NM W OF CENTER.  NO ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED 
BY NHC UNLESS ISELLE RE-MERGES AGAIN AS AN ORGANIZED ENTITY...
WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED.

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW WATERS TO LIFT NE AS BROAD 
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT CENTERED OVER SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
BLOCKS ANY FURTHER ELY DRIFT.  VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF ITCZ W OF 
124W.  E OF 124W...ANTICYCLONE ALOFT ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE 
BUT AT SAME TIME MAINTAINS MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WIND SHEAR 
ALOFT THAT CURTAILS SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY... 
THERE IS A LACK OF UPLIFTING MECHANISMS AT THE SURFACE WITH 
REMNANTS OF ISELLE AS THE ONLY EXCEPTION. 

LARGE LONG PERIOD SLY SWELLS MOVE ACROSS EQUATOR INTO EPAC S OF 
05N WITHIN 12 HRS AND LAST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

$$
WALLY BARNES