000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160913
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE 18.7N 111.6W MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 
4 KNOTS AT 0900 UTC.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 TO 40 KT.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 
18.5N114.5W WHICH IS WELL WEST OF THE CENTER. ISELLE WEAKENING 
RAPIDLY DUE TO ITS COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
INCREASED ELY WIND SHEAR ALOFT.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL LOW...
LOW 15N120W 1011 MB STATIONARY. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED NEAR 
THE SYSTEM AND ONLY SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED. NO 
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVE W 15 KT CONTINUES 
UNDER MODERATE ELY WIND SHEAR ALOFT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.  DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W/103W FROM 05N TO 15N MOVE W 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS NORTH OF 13N.  DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS ELY WIND 
SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...07N77W TO 06N100W TO 10N115W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE 
AREA N OF 05N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 03N80W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
POINT 06N96W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N110W 
TO 30N117W TO 15N128W TO 14N140W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOSTLY NORTH OF 17N.

ELSEWHERE WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH MOIST MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS 
OF CONVECTION. NONE OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZED BY 
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE N OF 20N WEST OF 120W. VERY WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE S OF 20N WEST OF 130W ALSO EAST OF 100W. ELSEWHERE BROAD 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL