000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160352
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE STATIONARY AT 18.2N 111.5W 1006 MB AT 
0300 UTC.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 30 TO 40 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF W 
QUADRANT.  ISELLE  WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO ITS COOLING SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED ELY WIND SHEAR ALOFT.  SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/ 
WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL LOW...
LOW PRES 15N121W 1011 MB STATIONARY.  DECREASED CONVECTION AND 
ITS DISPLACEMENT FROM LOW PRES CENTER MAKES SYSTEM CANDIDATE TO 
DIE WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HRS.  NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W FROM 05N TO 14N MOVE W 15 KT CONTINUES 
UNDER MODERATE ELY WIND SHEAR ALOFT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.  DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W FROM 05N TO 15N MOVE W 12 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF AXIS FROM 
09N-13N.  DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS ELY WIND SHEAR REMAINS 
UNABATED.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG08N78W TO 06N83W TO 10N105W TO 09N127W TO 
13N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM N OF AXIS AND 90 S OF AXIS FROM 86W-97W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 93W-105W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 97W-130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM 32N133W TO 17N130W LIES BETWEEN 
TO WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONES...ONE AT 21N140W AND ANOTHER AT 
26N105W.  LATTER ANTICYCLONE PREVENTS TROUGH FROM CONTINUED ELY 
MOVEMENT AND WILL DEFLECT NE AS REINFORCED RIDGE TAKES OVER E 
PAC AND MAINTAINS GROWTH-INHIBITING MODERATE ELY SHEAR OVER ALL 
SYSTEMS E OF 115W INCLUDING T.D. ISELLE AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES.

AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY N OF 12N W OF 120W CURTAILING 
CONVECTION EVEN ALONG ITCZ. 

$$
WALLY BARNES