000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE AT 17.7N 111.7W 1004 MB AT 0900 UTC MOVING 
W OR 270 DEG AT 7 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 TO 45 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE CENTER.  ISELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TODAY AS COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CUT OFF ITS 
SOURCE OF HEAT AND MODERATE ELY SHEAR TAKE ITS TOLL AGAINST THE 
DEEP CONVECTION.  SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL LOWS...
LOW PRES 14N121W 1010 MB MOVING W AT 5 KT. ONLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 05N TO 15N MOVE W 15 KT. NO 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS 
NOT EXPECTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W/97W FROM 05N TO 15N MOVE W 12 KT. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF AXIS WITHIN 
THE ITCZ. SYSTEM UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE 05N77W TO 09N110W TO 07N140W. ONLY 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 95W TO 103W AND FROM 118W TO 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NW OF LINE FROM 32N114W TO 
THE ITCZ NEAR 135W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS WITHIN THIS AREA 
NORTH OF 20N WITH BROKEN TO SCATTERED SOUTH OF 20N.

WEAK FLOW IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITH MOIST MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOSTLY WIDELY 
SCATTERED CONVECTION.

MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF ISELLE. ELSEWHERE BESIDES ISELLE 
AND THE TROPICAL LOW A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL