000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED AUG 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TEN-E LOCATED AT 16.3N 105.8W AT 1500 UTC WITH 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM 
HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB AND IS MOVING W OR 280 DEGREES 
AT 09 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN 
BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 18N136W AND ITS 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 
0540 UTC CONFIRMS AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT 
WIND FIELD REMAINING AROUND THE SYSTEM...DESPITE A LACK OF 
CONVECTION...THE WITH WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT AS FAR AS 300 NM 
FROM THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. THE REMNANT LOW WILL MOVE 
W SW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED NEAR 14N117W AND ITS CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB. DISSIPATING ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT. MORE 
SIGNIFICANT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 
11N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE W NW OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W AT THE MOMENT AND HAS BEEN MOVING W 
AT ABOUT 20 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
IN THE ITCZ AND HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
90 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 
07N AND 13N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 
KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND S 
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 01N TO 06N E OF 83W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N85W TO 09N89W TO 11N101W TO 09N110W 
13N117W TO 13N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN 
BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM AND 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND FROM 01N TO 06N E 
OF 83W AND FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NW WATERS WILL 
LIFT NE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND TAKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY 
NEAR 25N120W N WITH IT...BUT LEAVE SOME ENERGY BEHIND.  THIS 
ENERGY ALONG WITH THE W MOVING INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH 
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 110W S OF 20N WILL WORK TOGETHER TO 
SUSTAIN THE INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 135W. RIDGING BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH OVER NW WATERS AND THE REMNANT LOW OF HERNAN AS WELL AS 
AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 14N 117W WILL BE FORCED 
S...ALSO PUSHING THE THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS S OF W OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS. A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE W 
OF THE LOW NEAR 14N117W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W SW WITH THE 
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SUPPORT CONVECTION.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE E SIDE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
TEN-E WILL SURGE N THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HELPING TO 
FUEL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. 
IN ADDITION...THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 95W AND 84W WILL CONTINUE 
ON THEIR W TRACK...WITH THEIR MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THESE WAVES THROUGH 
CENTRAL AMERICA...ALLOWING MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED 
N AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE N 
EDGE OF THE WAVES...ESPECIALLY WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER LAND. 
E FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE SHOULD PROPEL DEBRIS MOISTURE W TO THE COAST FROM 
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO. 

$$
SCHAUER CLARK