000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED AUG 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

REMNANT LOW PRES OF HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 18N135W AND 
ESTIMATED AT 1010. A QUICK SCAT PASS INDICATES WINDS ARE 20 TO 
30 KT WITHIN 360 NM NW AND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLES 
WITH SEAS ESTIMATED AT 9 TO 14 FT. CONVECTION IS NON EXISTENT 
AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W SW FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. 

.LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 14N117W AND ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 
15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N117W TO 13N119W TO 16N119W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W NW AT ABOUT 10 KT.

.LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 16N105W AT 1008 MB. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
15.5N105W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W NW AT ABOUT 10 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W AT THE MOMENT AND HAS BEEN MOVING W 
AT ABOUT 17 KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 10N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81.5W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 17 
KT THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 06N TO THE E OF 81W.


...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N83W TO 08N96W TO 13N110W TO 11N122W 
13N130W TO 10N140W. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 06N E OF 81W... 
AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 122W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO CURRENTLY 
OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N89W AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 105W AND 
108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 34N134W TO 27N141W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N104W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW 
ALONG 27N130W TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 21N143W. DIFFLUENCE UNDER 
THE RIDGE ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN OLD MEXICO WITH SOME 
OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED W OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
26N E OF 123W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE 
HERNAN ID NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 21N132W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER 
LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY W OF 125W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM 32N140W TO 20N113W. LOCALLY OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
IS NOTED N OF 20N W OF 115W.  

AN ATLC UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N 
THROUGH UPPER CYCLONES AT 18N98W AND 16N105W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 14N87W RESULTING IN NE 
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 
110W. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED THE CONVECTION 
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINING S OF 18N E OF 
110W. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE SPREADS S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W 
AND 110W. 

$$
NELSON