000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120318 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE AUG 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 131.7W AT 12/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 08 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF 19.5N132W. HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND WILL MOVE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ON THURSDAY. ...TROPICAL LOWS... A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 15N114W AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 14.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 16N102W AND IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 82W N OF 04N INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N84W TO 12N95W TO 08N110W TO 10N130W TO 12N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N84W TO 05N88W AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 106W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... MODERATE TO STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED W OF A LINE FROM 32N128W TO 22N140W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED ALONG 31N E OF 125W INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. WINDS ARE STRONGEST ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT SHIFTS TO THE S AND BUILDS WESTWARD. WINDS ALOFT OVER THE TROPICS S OF ABOUT 15N ARE EASTERLY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 40 KT. E OF 110W... OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION THE WINDS ALOFT ARE EASTERLY AND ARE STRONGEST...UP TO 45 KT...S OF ABOUT 08N TO THE EQUATOR. AT THE SURFACE S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT ARE LOCATED FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W. $$ CAB