000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 128.4W OR ABOUT 1075 
NM...1985 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AT 11/0300 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 980 MB. HERNAN HAS A FAIRLY RAGGED 20 NM WIDE EYE 
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 
NM SW AND 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. OUTFLOW IS 
GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. HERNAN HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AND
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

.LOW NEAR 15N112W 1008 MB IS DRIFTING WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BAND AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER WITHIN 120 NM IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING SOME 
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AND MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.LOW NEAR 14N97W 1010 MB IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST. A BURST OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 
60-75 NM OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE BURST OF CONVECTION...
THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

.NONE

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LINE...  
06N77W TO 09N100W TO 16N123W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 
102W. 

OTHER CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60-75 NM 
OF THE POINT 14N97W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF 
THE AREA...NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO 
22N125W TO 20N140W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
FROM 24N TO 28N FROM 115W TO 135W. ELSEWHERE IN THIS AREA IN 
THE LOWER LEVELS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH REINFORCING TROUGHS COMING FROM 
THE WESTERLY MIDDLE LATITUDE FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
TROUGH THE AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THESE AREA 
ARE NEAR THE TWO LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO A LARGE AREA OF 
CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

AT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N130W TO 22N112W.

$$
COBB