000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 126.6W AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 80 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
975 MB.  HERNAN HAS AN 20 NM WIDE EYE WITH NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER EXCEPT TO 120 NM OVER THE 
SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE AND 
WITHIN 100 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT 
RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT IS GOOD ELSEWHERE. 
HERNAN IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 
TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

.LOW NEAR 13N111W 1008 MB DRIFT WEST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE CENTER...WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE POINT 15N112.5W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE 
SLOWLY WEST AND MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

.LOW NEAR 13N95W 1010 MB SLOW NORTHWEST MOVEMENT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. THE 
LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVES NEAR THE ABOVE TWO LOWS HAVE BECOME VERY 
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURES. THE WAVES HAVE BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 
SURFACE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LINE...
06N77W TO 05N85W TO 12N105W TO 14N125W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
POINT 06N79W. 

OTHER CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF 
THE POINT 15N102W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF 
THE AREA...NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO 22N125W 
TO 19N140W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS 
FROM 24N TO 29N FROM 115W TO 135W. ELSEWHERE IN THIS AREA IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS OBSERVED. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH REINFORCING TROUGHS COMING FROM 
THE WESTERLY MIDDLE LATITUDE FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA.

OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 
TROUGH THE AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THESE AREA 
ARE NEAR THE TWO LOWS MENTIONED ABOVE AND ALSO A LARGE AREA OF 
CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.


AT THE SURFACE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 110W. 
ELSEWHERE OTHER THAN THE TWO LOWS AND HURRICANE HERNAN A BROAD 
TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL