000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051606 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE AUG 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 89W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD PATTERN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NRN BELIZE AND NE GUATEMALA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W FROM 3N TO 16N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N105W AS NOTED IN CYCLONIC TURNING OF LOW CLOUDS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 105W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING...AND ALSO WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING BAND FROM 12N-15N E OF THE WAVE TO 100W. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1230 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED SEVERAL RAIN-FLAGGED WIND OF 20-25 KT WITHIN THE AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE...BUT WIND VECTORS VEERED SHARPLY S OF THE CONVECTION TO 9N WHERE THEY BECOME STRAIGHT SLY. IT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SEPARATE FORM THE ITCZ WITH TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY CONSOLIDATE AND UNDERGO SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 121W FROM 3N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. FIRSTS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF THE WAVE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE ITCZ NEAR 9N120W. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N120.5W. THE WAVE MAY BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH A MORE ACTIVE ITCZ AXIS W OF 120W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N86W 11N98W 10N105W 9N112W 10N120W 10N130W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-95W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 3N-8.5N BETWEEN 79W-83.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-132W. OTHER ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IS THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE UPPER WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS THIS AREA AS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SSE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE WNW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED-UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA S OF 20N...WITH WIND DIRECTION MORE NNE E OF 80W. THIS WIND FLOW IS CHANNELING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SSW ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO SW AND WESTWARD TOWARDS 110W WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES RATHER DIFFLUENT. UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE CONTINUES TO BE PRESENT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 21N. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING N EXTENDS FROM 24N116W SW TO 17N119W. AN UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOME TO THE SW AND GRADUALLY LIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG AND WITHIN 300 NM TO ITS SE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES DOMINATES THIS AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF LINE FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N123W. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS IS ERODING WITH TIME. PAPAGAYO NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THU AFTERNOON. W OF 125W... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N131W S TO 25N131W...WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT TO ITS SW TO THE W OF THE AREA ALONG 142W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC LOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 16W WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS NOTED N OF 15N...EXCEPT THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. A NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N130W. A RELATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION SW TO 15N138W. IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT FROM 4N-15N...AND IS UNDER THE SE PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE N AND NW. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE THROUGH 32N136W TO 24N125W. HIGH PRES PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N. $$ AGUIRRE