000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051028
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE AUG 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 07N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  WAVE HAS 
BEEN UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AND HAS DEVELOPED CLUSTER 
OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST OFF COAST OF GUATEMALA DUE TO MODERATELY 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  NEVERTHELESS WAVE CONTINUES DRIFTING W 
TOWARDS MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND EXPECTED TO LOSE 
CHANCES OF ORGANIZATION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 105W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT HAS LOW PRES 
1008 MB EMBEDDED AT 11N105W WITH SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NOTED.  UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ALMOST NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY 
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT.  MODEL GUIDANCE POINT AT 
LOW PRES AS GOOD CANDIDATE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 48 HRS. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 121W FROM 03N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
AXIS N OF ITCZ MEETS DRY STABLE AIR MASS CURTAILING DEEP 
CONVECTION.  NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT ALOFT KEEPS SYSTEM GOING WITH 
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE AS AREA OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AWAITS FOR WAVE 36-48 HRS AHEAD.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 10N85W TO 11N100W TO 08N112W TO 10N121W TO 11N134W TO 
10N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 360 NM N AND 
120 NM S OF AXIS W OF 102W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER OVER ARIZONA HAS LONG RIDGE 
EXTEND SW ACROSS NWRN MEXICO TO 21N140W.  MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINS AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE DRY AND STABLE.  RIDGE 
ALSO FORCING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ E OF 
110W.  

FARTHER S...WEAK MID/UPPER CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 17N131W EXPECTED 
TO ENHANCE DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF WESTERNMOST TROPICAL WAVE 
ALTHOUGH POSSIBLE NE DRIFT MIGHT LESSEN SUCH INFLUENCE ON WAVE. 
ITCZ BECOMING MORE ACTIVE DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN 
ADDITION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB AT 34N142W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
15N115W SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADES W OF 130W.  CROSS EQUATORIAL 
S SWELLS CONTINUE AFFECTING SEAS S OF 10N FROM 90W-130W.  

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SHORT GULF OF PAPAGAYO WIND EVENT WITHIN 
24-30 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES