000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050308 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE AUG 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ACROSS COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA ALONG 84W N OF 06N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A DECENT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH SOME CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BUT LITTLE TO NO SIGNATURE LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR AND JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 103W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N103W BASED ON SOME LOW-LEVEL TURNING NOTED IN EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A CIRCULATION DENOTED IN QSCAT IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITH WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION COVERING A LARGE AREA AROUND THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 100W-110W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY CONSOLIDATE AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 119W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR A SMALL AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING EXTENDING FROM THE ITCZ NWD A FEW HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES BUT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE AXIS AND WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE MAY BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES THROUGH A MORE ACTIVE ITCZ AXIS W OF 120W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N77W TO 11N102W TO 08N110W TO 12N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 100W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 121W-134W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N-14N W OF 129W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... A LARGE BLOCKING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND EXTENDS WESTWARD TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE RESULTING DEEP-LAYERED FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS IS EASTERLY E OF 110W THEN TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FROM SOCORRO ISLAND TO CALIFORNIA. THE STRENGTH OF THE FLOW IS INTERRUPTED SOMEWHAT ACROSS SE MEXICO DUE TO THE DEEPENING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. EDOUARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LIES WITHIN THE TROPICAL BELT E OF 110W WITH SOME OF IT BEING DRAWN TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER IN THE REGION IS DOMINATED BY THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 84W AND 103W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHORT PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WILL BEGIN BY TUE EVENING. THERE IS SOME TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WINDS TO 20 KT AT 00 UTC AND THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A 6-12 HR LAG. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS SHOW THE EVENT ENDING BY 00 UTC THU (WED EVENING). W OF 120W... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG 131W N OF 26N AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEXT TO AN UPPER HIGH W OF THE AREA NEAR 21N147W AND BOTH ARE PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 15N W OF 124W. FARTHER S...A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 16N128W AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWARD-INFLECTION OF THE MOISTURE FIELD BETWEEN 120W-127W. THE ITCZ IS QUITE ACTIVE W OF 120W DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT UPPER DIFFLUENCE...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS ORIENTED ALONG TWO SEPARATE LINES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION. $$ BERG