000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042204 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON AUG 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA N OF 4N ALONG 83W. IT IS MOVING W AROUND 13 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE STRONG CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF PANAMA...AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N102W TO 9N103W MOVING W ABOUT 16 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE AFTERNOON HAS SHOWN MORE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AT 11N102.5W. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 12N TO 14N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM SW OF THE LOW...BUT ARE MAINLY TIED IN WITH THE ITCZ. THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT 36-49 HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 4N TO 16N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS WAVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF THE WAVE PRIMARILY TIED TO THE ITCZ NEAR 11N117W...BUT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH IT FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK SMALL TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 11N102W 8N110W 12N32W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 122W-134W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 134W-134W. OTHER ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IS THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE UPPER WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS THIS AREA AS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SSE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE WNW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED-UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS A WIDE SWATH OF EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA S OF 20N...WITH WIND DIRECTION MORE NNE E OF 98W MAINLY DUE TO WELL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS CHANNELING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SSW ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO SW AND WESTWARD TOWARDS 110W WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES RATHER DIFFLUENT. UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS MOSITURE AREA IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 21N-25N. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE SE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE MOSITURE CONTENT THERE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH LIFTING N EXTENDS FROM 21N113W SW TO 16N117W. AN UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOME TO THE SW AND GRADUALLY LIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG AND WITHIN 300 NM TO ITS SE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES DOMINATES THIS AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NW OF LINE FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 16N123W. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS IS ERODING WITH TIME. PAPAGAYO NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND LAST THROUGH THU MORNING. W OF 125W... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 25N132W...WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT TO ITS SW TO THE W OF THE AREA ALONG 142W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC LOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 16W WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS NOTED N OF 15N...EXCEPT THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. A NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 14N127W. A RELATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION NW TO 21N135W. IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT FROM 4N-15N...AND IS UNDER THE SE PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE N AND NW. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE THROUGH 32N137W TO 24N126W. HIGH PRES PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N. $$ AGUIRRE