000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041606 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON AUG 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W N OF 5N MOVING W ABOUT 16 KT. PRESENTLY...NO ORGANIZATION EXISTS WITH THIS WAVE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE TO THE E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N98W TO 13N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N101W...AND ALSO OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N95W. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 112W HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER W TO ALONG 117W FROM 4N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N118W. THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ALSO DISPLAYING SOME CYCLONIC TURNING...BUT SINCE IT IS TOO CLOSELY TIED TO CONVECTION RELATED WITH THE ITCZ ANY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CENTER HERE WILL BE RATHER SLOW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 9N90W 8N102W 9N110W 10N117W TO 10N125W 9N133W 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 122W-128W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N131W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IS THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE UPPER WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS THIS AREA AS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SSE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE WNW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED-UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS A WINDS SPANSE OF EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA S OF 20N...WITH WIND DIRECTION MORE NNE E OF 98W MAINLY DUE TO WELL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS CHANNELING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SSW ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO SOUTHWEST AND WESTWARD TOWARDS 110W. UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS MOSITURE AREA IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 21N-25N. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE SE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND COULD POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE MOSITURE CONTENT THERE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING N EXTENDS FROM 20N111W TO 15N115W. AN UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOME TO THE SW AND GRADUALLY LIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG AND WITHIN 300 NM TO ITS SE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 8N105.5W. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30-60 NM SE OF THE LOW AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE ALONG 102W. MOSTLY OVERCAST LAYERS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N BETWEEN 115W-125W. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS IS ERODING WITH TIME. W OF 120W... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 25N132W...WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT TO ITS SW AND W ALONG 139W/140W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC LOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 16W WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS NOTED N OF 15N...EXCEPT THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. A NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 14N126W. A RELATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION NW TO 22N134W. IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT FROM 3N-16N...ENHANCED BY THE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE N AND NW. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE THROUGH 32N138W TO 23N126W. HIGH PRES PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041606 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON AUG 04 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W N OF 5N MOVING W ABOUT 16 KT. PRESENTLY...NO ORGANIZATION EXISTS WITH THIS WAVE. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE TO THE E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N98W TO 13N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N101W...AND ALSO OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N95W. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 112W HAS BEEN RELOCATED FURTHER W TO ALONG 117W FROM 4N TO 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF 10N118W. THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ALSO DISPLAYING SOME CYCLONIC TURNING...BUT SINCE IT IS TOO CLOSELY TIED TO CONVECTION RELATED WITH THE ITCZ ANY DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CENTER HERE WILL BE RATHER SLOW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 9N90W 8N102W 9N110W 10N117W TO 10N125W 9N133W 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 122W-128W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF 11N131W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 125W... AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW UNITED STATES IS THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE UPPER WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS THIS AREA AS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS SSE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE WNW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED-UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS A WINDS SPANSE OF EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA S OF 20N...WITH WIND DIRECTION MORE NNE E OF 98W MAINLY DUE TO WELL-DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. THIS WIND FLOW IS CHANNELING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SSW ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE MEXICO SOUTHWEST AND WESTWARD TOWARDS 110W. UPPER LEVEL MOSITURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS MOSITURE AREA IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 21N-25N. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE SE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND COULD POSSIBLY ENHANCE THE MOSITURE CONTENT THERE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MOVING N EXTENDS FROM 20N111W TO 15N115W. AN UPPER TROUGH JUST NW OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOME TO THE SW AND GRADUALLY LIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS ALONG AND WITHIN 300 NM TO ITS SE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 8N105.5W. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30-60 NM SE OF THE LOW AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE ALONG 102W. MOSTLY OVERCAST LAYERS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N BETWEEN 115W-125W. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS IS ERODING WITH TIME. W OF 125W... MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 25N132W...WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EVIDENT TO ITS SW AND W ALONG 139W/140W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC LOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 16W WITH AMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE CONDITIONS NOTED N OF 15N...EXCEPT THE FAR NW CORNER WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPILLING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. A NEARLY STATIONARY SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 14N126W. A RELATED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION NW TO 22N134W. IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT FROM 3N-16N...ENHANCED BY THE AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE N AND NW. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE THROUGH 32N138W TO 23N126W. HIGH PRES PROVIDING STABLE CONDITIONS COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N. $$ AGUIRRE