000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040943
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 07N MOVING W 20 KT.  WAVE IS NOT 
PARTICULARLY UNDER A VERY ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE NE SHEAR ABOVE...BUT IT IS HEADING 
TOWARDS DECREASE IN SHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT 
WHICH COULD ENHANCE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SCATTERED 
TSTMS NOW INCREASING JUST W OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ISOLATED 
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ INTERSECTION WITH ITS AXIS.  SYSTEM IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OR BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 112W FROM 04N-16N MOVING W 15 KT.  ALTHOUGH 
IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WAVE AXIS HAS 
ENCOUNTERED VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF ITCZ WHICH HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL 
IN WAVE HEALTH.  LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS WAVE.  COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE 
AHEAD OF WAVE AND CHANCES OF GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION ARE 
MINIMAL.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 05N80W TO 10N93W TO 07N107W TO 14N122W TO 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF ITCZ E OF 92W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N-14N W OF 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING NW PART OF E PAC ALONG 135W BRINGING 
IN FIRST SIGN OF MOISTURE ALOFT IN OVER A WEEK.  OTHERWISE AREA 
N OF 17N W OF 124W REMAINS DRY UNDER BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO.  SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS RUN 
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE DEFORMING FLOW OVER TROPICAL WAVES 
DESCRIBED IN PARAGRAPH ABOVE.

STRONG CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 18N86W OVER NW CARIBBEAN BRINGS STRONG 
NLY FLOW FROM GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO E PAC 
WITH CONVERGING FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR.  OTHERWISE 
AREA S OF 17N E OF 108W REMAINS VERY MOIST. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1024 MB CENTERED AT 34N142W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
16N115W MAINTAINING A GOOD LID OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT N OF ITCZ 
AND RESTRICTING MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO W OF 132W.  CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SRN SWELL CONTINUE AFFECTING E PAC S OF 10N E OF 125W.

WEAK LINGERING N WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS UNDER 8 FT WITHIN NEXT 18 HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES