000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032128 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED W SLIGHTLY ALONG 93W N OF 6N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UPDATED POSITION IS BASED ON AN IMPROVED BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING...CONCENTRATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND A STATIONARY LOW TO ITS W FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 87W-102W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 108W FROM 6N-18N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED TO PASS THROUGH THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW SITUATED NEAR 9N104W. MOST OF THE CYCLONIC TURNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED AROUND THE LOW AND IF THE WAVE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH SIGNATURE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE SFC ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N85W 9N110W 10N128W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 112W-118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 127W-140W ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W... A COUPLE WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE LOCATED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE EPAC. ONE IS QUICKLY FIZZLING OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N113W...ANALYZED 1010 MB. YESTERDAY THIS LOW SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZING...BUT IT HAS SINCE MOVED OVER COOL WATERS AND CONSEQUENTLY LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND MUCH OF ITS CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER LOW...ALSO ANALYZED 1010 MB...HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N104W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER BROAD IN STRUCTURE AND CONVECTION IS FAIRLY SPARSE (MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN NATURE) WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS MOIST DUE IN PART TO A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN CAUSED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL SFC FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE. W OF 115W... THE LARGE SCALE MID AND UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL DEFINED UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS...A HIGHLY STRETCHED UPPER LOW NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG 126W AND WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF THE TROUGH. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE CLOUDINESS N OF 16N...IN FACT...UPPER CONFLUENCE IS HELPING TO STABILIZE MUCH OF THIS REGION. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CONVECTION NOTED FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 126W-140W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY THE UPPER PATTERN AND THEN TAPPED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE AXIS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES HAS STRENGTHENED TO 1024 MB NEAR 34N142W RESULTING IN AN SLIGHT INCREASE (NEAR 20 KT) IN NE TRADES AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE N WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA. $$ CANGIALOSI