000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031528 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 10N MOVING W 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES NEAR THE BASE OF THE WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM W OF AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 6N-18N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED TO PASS THROUGH THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOW SITUATED NEAR 9N104W. MOST OF THE CYCLONIC TURNING AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED AROUND THE LOW AND IF THE WAVE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH SIGNATURE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE SFC ANALYSIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 8N105W 7N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 9.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 125W AND 131W AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 133W AND 139W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 115W... A COUPLE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE LOCATED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE EPAC. ONE IS CENTERED ABOUT 120 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N112W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. YESTERDAY THIS LOW SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZING BUT IT HAS NOW MOVED OVER COOL WATERS AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED DUE TO THE STABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. THE OTHER LOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N104W...ANALYZED 1010 MB. THIS LOW HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND REMAINS RATHER BROAD IN STRUCTURE. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY SPARSE...COMPARED TO THE PAST DAY OR TWO...AND IS MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE IN NATURE WITHIN 360 NM OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS FAIRLY MOIST DUE IN PART TO A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN CAUSED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER HIGH JUST W OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 15N96W. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL SFC FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE. W OF 115W... THE LARGE SCALE MID AND UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL DEFINED UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS...A HIGHLY STRETCHED UPPER LOW NW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS ALONG 125W AND WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE TROPICS W OF THE TROUGH. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE CLOUDINESS N OF 17N...IN FACT...UPPER CONFLUENCE IS HELPING TO STABILIZE MUCH OF THIS REGION. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CONVECTION NOTED FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 125W-139W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY THE UPPER PATTERN AND THEN TAPPED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE AXIS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY TO 1024 MB NEAR 34N142W. THIS HAS ALLOWED NE TRADES TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 20 KT AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE N WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA. $$ CANGIALOSI