000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031018
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES CENTER 1012 MB OFF SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 
23N112W DRIFTING NW IS QUICKLY LOSING DEEP CONVECTION AS IT 
APPROACHES COOL WATERS OFFSHORE.  SYSTEM LIKELY DISSIPATE WITHIN 
NEXT 24-36 HR.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W N OF 06N MOVING W 15 KT PULLING AWAY 
FROM FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AND APPROACHING DRIER AIR MASS. 
DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED ONLY TO SMALL AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
ALONG ITCZ. 

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W N OF 08N REMAIN MOSTLY OVER 
LAND BUT DEFINITELY HAS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE 
AND FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT S OF 14N TO DEVELOP CONVECTION 
ONCE IT FULLY GET OVER WATER.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...10N85W TO 08N105W TO 09N90W TO 11N104W TO 
09115W TO 11N125W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 108W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF N AND 180 NM S OF 
AXIS W OF 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER WRN TEXAS HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND SW TO 22N140W MAINTAINING DRY AIR MASS N OF 14N W OF 
125W.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE ELSEWHERE IN E PAC AS SRN 
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ADVECTS IT FROM GULF OF MEXICO WHILE SECOND 
RIDGE...CENTERED OVER ERN CARIBBEAN...BRINGS PLENTY OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO E PAC AT THE ITCZ LATITUDES. 

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE CARIBBEAN 
EXTEND SW INTO E PAC TO 14N95W.  UPPER CONFLUENT FLOW IN NRN 
HALF OF TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 84W/85W CURTAILING ANY CHANCES  
OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION.

WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB AT 34N142W HAS MODERATE TO STRONG 
TRADES W OF 125W EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS CONTINUE AFFECTING E PAC WATERS S OF 10N 
E OF 130W AND LIKELY TO RUN THROUGH ENTIRE PERIOD AND MORE.  

$$
WALLY BARNES