000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 75 NM S OF THE 
SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N109W MOVING N SLOWLY. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC TURNING...BUT IT IS STRETCHED N-S. CONVECTION HAS 
WEAKENED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF 21.5N110W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
BEFORE IT TRACKS OVER COOLER WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W N OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE 
HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. BROAD 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS 
LOW-LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 230 NM E OF 
THE AXIS N OF 12N AND A WIDER AREA WITHIN THE INTERSECTION OF 
THE ITCZ.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...06N77W TO 08N105W TO 09N115W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 09N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 12N129W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE POINT 09N132W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED OVER THIS PORTION OF 
THE EPAC. ONE IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 NM S OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE 
OTHER REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 10N105W 
...ANALYZED 1010 MB. MUCH OF THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH IT HAS DIMINISHED LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND A FEW TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. ANY DEVELOPMENT 
WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR IF IT CAN BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE ITCZ. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THIS LOW REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST 
WITH CONVECTION SCATTERED ALONG THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE. 
FARTHER N GENERALLY N OF 28N NEAR THE BAJA COAST...N WINDS TO 20 
KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ESTIMATED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO END IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

W OF 120W...
SW UPPER FLOW BETWEEN A SLOW MOVING UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW 
MEXICO AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS 
DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS. WHILE SOME MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
NE ON THIS FLOW...NEARLY ALL OF IT IS CONFINED W OF 140W. MUCH 
MORE MOISTURE LIES IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE CONTRIBUTING 
ELEMENTS CONSIST OF DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN A SMALL SCALE 
UPPER HIGH NEAR 17N133W AND A NARROW WEAK TROUGH ALONG 140W. 
THIS UPPER PATTERN COMBINED WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC 
TROUGH...FROM 14N127W TO 07N134W...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 125W-138W...THIS 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. 
OTHERWISE...A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N136W IS PRODUCING MODEST NE 
TRADES TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
LL