000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 140 NM S OF THE 
SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 21N108W MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC TURNING...BUT IT IS STRETCHED N-S. CONVECTION HAS 
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 20N-22N 
BETWEEN 108W-110W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT TRACKS OVER COOLER WATERS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W N OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE 
HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. BROAD 
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS 
LOW-LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 230 NM E OF THE 
AXIS N OF 12N AND A WIDER AREA WITHIN THE INTERSECTION OF THE 
ITCZ.  

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 120W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 
ANALYSIS AS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE EVIDENCE FOR SOME TIME. THIS 
FEATURE MAY HAVE HELPED SPAWN THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W 08N105W 09N115W 07N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
06N85W AND 08N97W AND 07.5N100W AND 08N104W AND 07.5N132W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09.5N TO 
12N FROM 129W TO 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED OVER THIS PORTION OF 
THE EPAC. ONE IS CENTERED ABOUT 140 NM S OF THE SRN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA (DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION). THE 
OTHER REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 10N105W 
...ANALYZED 1010 MB. MUCH OF THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH IT HAS DIMINISHED LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE 
SLOW TO OCCUR IF IT CAN BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE ITCZ. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THIS LOW REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST WITH 
CONVECTION SCATTERED ALONG THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE. FARTHER N 
GENERALLY N OF 28N NEAR THE BAJA COAST...N WINDS TO 20 KT AND 
SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ESTIMATED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

W OF 120W...
SW UPPER FLOW BETWEEN A SLOW MOVING UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW 
MEXICO AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS 
DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS. WHILE SOME MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
NE ON THIS FLOW...NEARLY ALL OF IT IS CONFINED W OF 140W. MUCH 
MORE MOISTURE LIES IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE CONTRIBUTING 
ELEMENTS CONSIST OF DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN A SMALL SCALE 
UPPER HIGH NEAR 17N133W AND A NARROW WEAK TROUGH ALONG 140W. 
THIS UPPER PATTERN COMBINED WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC 
TROUGH...FROM 17N123W TO 11N120W...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 125W-138W. OTHERWISE...A 
1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N136W IS PRODUCING MODEST NE TRADES BUT 
EARLIER ASCAT DID INDICATE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO 15-20 KT 
WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH. 

$$
CANGIALOSI