000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021519 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT AUG 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N108W MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED ROTATION IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE N OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...STRETCHED N-S...FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 107W-110W. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT TRACKS OVER COOLER WATERS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W/101W N OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS LOW-LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 13N AND A WIDER AREA WITHIN THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 120W FROM 8N-18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LITTLE SIGNATURE IS APPARENT NEAR THE ANALYZED AXIS...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY. MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED CYCLONIC TURNING IS LOCATED ABOUT 5 DEGREES W ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC TROUGH. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 08N TO 11N E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 06N77W TO 10N106W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 09N114W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 123W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE LOCATED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE EPAC. ONE IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ...DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE OTHER REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ CENTERED NEAR 10N107W...ANALYZED 1010 MB. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING A LARGE BLOW OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 103W-107W. ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR IF IT CAN BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE ITCZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THIS LOW REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST WITH CONVECTION SCATTERED ALONG THE ITCZ AND TROPICAL WAVE. FARTHER N GENERALLY N OF 27N NEAR THE BAJA COAST...N WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ESTIMATED. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. W OF 120W... SW UPPER FLOW BETWEEN A SLOW MOVING UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICS. WHILE SOME MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE ON THIS FLOW...NEARLY ALL OF IT IS CONFINED W OF 140W. MUCH MORE MOISTURE LIES IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE CONTRIBUTING ELEMENTS CONSIST OF DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN A SMALL SCALE UPPER HIGH NEAR 16N132W AND A NARROW WEAK TROUGH ALONG 139W. THIS UPPER PATTERN COMBINED WITH A WELL DEFINED SFC TROUGH...FROM 18N123W TO 11N130W WITH A WEAK LOW ALONG THE TROUGH LINE NEAR 12N126W...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 125W-137W. OTHERWISE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS PRODUCING MODEST NE TRADES BUT ASCAT DOES SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 240 NM NE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH. $$ CANGIALOSI