000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021014
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 07N MOVING W 15 KT.  MODERATE 
CONFLUENT FLOW CURTAILS DEEP CONVECTION ON NRN HALF OF WAVE AXIS 
WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION GROWS WITHIN 240 NM W OF 
AXIS ALONG ITCZ.  SYSTEM APPROACHES LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 
10N106W WHICH IS DRIFTING W AND LIKELY CATCH UP WITHIN NEXT 36 
HRS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND WARRANTS MONITORING.    

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W FROM 03N-15N MOVING W 15 KT.  
CONDITIONS ALOFT NOT ENTIRELY ADVERSE FOR DEVELOPMENT BUT COOLER 
SST AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TAKE A TOLL 
IN THIS SYSTEM.     

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...10N85W TO 09N108W TO 08N118W TO 07N127W TO 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N AND 
90 NM S OF AXIS E OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ALONG NW PART OF E PAC KEEPING DRY 
AIR MASS N OF 18N W OF 122W.  EQUALLY SHARP ANTICYCLONE CENTER 
OVER NEW MEXICO EXTENDS SW THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
10N135W.  WHILE RIDGE MAINTAINS DRY AIR OVER MEXICO IT IS 
ADVECTING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM GULF OF 
MEXICO INTO E PAC N OF 16N.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 
20N95W IN BAY OF CAMPECHE PRODUCING CONFLUENT FLOW OVER TROPICAL 
WAVE AS MENTION ABOVE.  FURTHER E...WEAK RIDGE OVER EL SALVADOR  
KEEPS WARM TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA FLOWING W ALONG 
SRN PERIPHERY FEEDING ITCZ WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF WATER FOR 
CONVECTION. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES 1022 MB NEAR 32N137W 
KICKING MODERATE NE TRADES W OF 130W.  DEVELOPING GALE ALONG 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA SPILLING STRONG NLY WIND N OF 29N E OF 125W 
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  LONG PERIOD 8-9 FT 
SWELL EXPECTED TO LINGER WHILE LONGER AFTER WIND SUBSIDES. 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY SWELLS STILL AFFECT S OF 10N FROM 80W TO 
130W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES