000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W NORTH OF 06N MOVING W 15 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS 
WEAKENING. THE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W FROM 2N-15N MOVING W 15 KT.
AS IN THE ABOVE WAVE ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND 
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO CONFINED 
TO THE ITCZ REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...05N77W TO 09N105W TO 07N120W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
OF THE POINT 08N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 94W 
TO 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 08.5N113W AND THE POINT 12.5N130W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE 
EPAC. ONE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N105W. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS 
THAT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING NEAR THIS SYSTEM BUT SHOWS SOME 
WEAK CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED 
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED ABOUT 
150 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N107W. THIS LOW EXHIBITS 
SOME SIMILAR QUALITIES TO THE FEATURE FARTHER S AS SOME CYCLONIC 
TURNING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGES. EARLIER TODAY...SHIP DGAS 
REPORTED 23 KT SE WINDS ABOUT 75 NM NE OF THE CENTER. MORE 
RECENTLY...AN ASCAT PASS REVEALED NEARLY A CLOSED CIRCULATION 
WITH MAX WINDS NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE POINT 19N107.5W.

W OF 120W...
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW N OF 20N IS MAINLY S OR SWLY BETWEEN AN 
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...LITTLE MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WITH THIS FLOW. S OF 20N...THE UPPER 
PATTERN IS A BIT MORE DIFFLUENT DUE TO A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 
137W...HOWEVER ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO 
THE ITCZ. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES IS ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY 
LIGHT NE TRADES BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT NW OF A 
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 18N123W TO 10N130W. THE TRADES 
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 20 KT OVER THE WEEKEND 
AS HIGH PRES RIDGING AMPLIFIES N OF THE ZONE.

$$
LL