000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT. VISIBLE 
IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT THE AXIS. 
SCATTERED PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 240 NM W AND 
360 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 116W FROM 2N-15N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS 
WAVE IS CAUSING A SLIGHT PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ EXPANDING 
CLOUDINESS NWD BUT CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 
6N-10N BETWEEN 112W-119W. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 05N77W TO 09N100W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 85W TO 100W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 08.5N115W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 10N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF INTEREST ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE 
EPAC. ONE IS A NEARLY STATIONARY 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N105W. THE ROTATION OF CLOUD 
ELEMENTS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS 
LOCATED NEAR THE NE EDGE OF A WEAKENING AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 105W-108W. ANY FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW 
PRES IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
18N107W. THIS LOW EXHIBITS SOME SIMILAR QUALITIES TO THE FEATURE 
FARTHER S AS A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED IN VIS 
IMAGES. EARLIER TODAY...SHIP DGAS REPORTED 23 KT SE WINDS ABOUT 
75 NM NE OF THE CENTER. MORE RECENTLY...AN ASCAT PASS 
REVEALED NEARLY A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH MAX WINDS NEAR 20 KT. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE LOW.

W OF 120W...
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW N OF 20N IS MAINLY S OR SWLY BETWEEN AN 
UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...LITTLE MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WITH THIS FLOW. S OF 20N...THE UPPER 
PATTERN IS A BIT MORE DIFFLUENT DUE TO A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 
137W...HOWEVER ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO 
THE ITCZ. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES IS ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY 
LIGHT NE TRADES BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT NW OF A 
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 18N123W TO 10N130W. THE TRADES 
WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 20 KT OVER THE WEEKEND 
AS HIGH PRES RIDGING AMPLIFIES N OF THE ZONE.

$$
CANGIALOSI