000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED N OF 05N ALONG 90W MOVE W 15 TO 20 KT.  
NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 04N ALONG 110W MOVE W 
12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE 1009 MB IS ANALYZED 
NEAR 09N104W WELL WEST OF THE AXIS WITH CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED 
IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM OF THE WEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW. THIS LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST AND REMAIN WEAK.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS FLUCTUATES BETWEEN 08N AND 10N ACROSS THE E 
PACIFIC TO THE E OF 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 8.5N106W. 
OTHERWISE ISOLATED MODERATE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED 
FROM 04N TO 11N TO THE E OF 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MAINLY UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 32N124W 
AND IS EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH WHICH IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 118W 
TO 132W. THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS NORTH OF 17N IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE 
TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WEST OF THIS SYSTEM WEAK 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED. THIS ANTICYCLONIC AREA IS VERY DRY 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS 
OBSERVED NORTH OF 20N IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH 
WITH WIDESPREAD MULTI LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF 
CONVECTION. NONE OF THE AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOW A TENDENCY  
TOWARD ORGANIZATION.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 110W. 
ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL