000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310922
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W FROM 5N TO 13N WITH A LOW EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N105W 1008 MB. IT IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. 
FOR ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SEE SECTION BELOW UNDER ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA ALONG 83W N 
OF 6N...MOVING W AT 17 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE WAVE. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N83W TO 10N103W TO 07N112W TO 
10N124W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 86W AND 95W TO THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120-150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W 
AND 118W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 27N123W HAS TURNED 
NORTHWARD AND MOVING AT 15-20 KT WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH 
EXTENDING SWD TO 18N125W. THE CYCLONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 450-600 NM OF ITS CENTER. OTHERWISE THE 
UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 130W 
SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW 
U.S. WESTWARD TO ALONG 120W. ANOTHER SMALL AND ELONGATED UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 23N133W WITH A RIDGE N TO 
29N133W...AND ANOTHER ONE SSW TO 18N135W. 

THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE IS MOVING W 
OF THE AREA AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 17N140W. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
NE WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. ELSEWHERE
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH LOCATED WELL NW OF 
THE AREA THROUGH 30N137W TO 25N120W TO 23N115W. 

FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED WITHIN DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
SOUTHWEST U.S. ANTICYCLONE. CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST AND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 21N TO 27N. 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING 
AS TOPS ARE WARMING AS IT MOVES TO THE SW.

A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N122W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE 
EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 18N115W. ASSOCIATED UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 11N124W TO 18N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH FROM 14N-17N.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N80W
WITH A RIDGE WNW ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENT
FLOW TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE IS CREATING SOME CONVECTION TO THE 
SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE COAST OF EL 
SALVADOR.  

$$
COBB