000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302219
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 102W FROM 5N TO 13N WITH A LOW NEAR 
9N102W 1011 MB. IT IS MOVING W ABOUT 12 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 180 NM W 
OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 129W IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE
...THEREFORE HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 1800 UTC SURFACE 
ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 6N90W 10N122W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW 
OF A LINE FROM 9N105W TO 11N102W...AND ALSO FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 
120W-123W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WELL DEFINED UPPER CYCLONE MOVING NW AT 15 KT IS CENTERED NEAR
25N123W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SSW TO 20N124W TO 17N126W. THE
CYCLONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN ABOUT 600 
NM OF ITS CENTER. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF 
THE ITCZ AND W OF 130W...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION FROM 
DEVELOPING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. IT 
EXTENDS FROM SRN CALIFORNIA W TO 33N130W. A SMALL AND ELONGATED
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 23N133W WITH A RIDGE N TO 
29N133W...AND ANOTHER ONE SSW TO 18N135W.

THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE GENEVIEVE IS NOTED 
NEAR 16.0N 138W. IT IS TOTALLY EXPOSED...AND LACKS ANY
DEEP CONVECTION. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH 
NEAR 32N134W 1024 MB SE TO 26N125W TO 23N118W.

FURTHER E...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
ENHANCED TO THE SW OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RIDGE ALONG THE MEXICAN
COAST AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COAST FROM 16N-21N. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WEAKENING
AS TOPS ARE WARMING AS IT MOVES WNW.

A TROPICAL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N122W WITH A SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 18N115W. ASSOCIATED 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG A LOW LEVEL TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N122W NE TO 19N118W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE 
TROUGH.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N79W
WITH A RIDGE WNW ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENT
FLOW TO THE SW OF THE RIDGE IS CREATING SOME CONVECTION TO 
THE SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N85W
TO 10N88W. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 3N95W TO 11N96W.

$$
AGUIRRE