000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96N N OF 05N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND IS TRAILING A SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 09N99W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 180 NM N AND 
150 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 98W TO 107W...W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
AXIS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO THE S 
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AXIS BRINGS DRY AIR THROUGH WAVE.  
THIS DRY AIR COUPLED WITH A LACK OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS LIMITING 
CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 123W FROM 05N-18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N AND 180 
NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 126W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CAN BE FOUND TO THE E OF THE WAVE.  UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH DEEP TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS SUPPORTING 
THE CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT...BUT EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO WANE 
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A REGION OF LOWER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

  
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG AXIS 07N78W TO 05N88W TO 06N110W TO 11N126W TO 
09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ E OF 90W INCLUDING COAST OF PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N AND 
150 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 98W TO 107W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 126W.


...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH 
THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NW SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT IS 
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS 
WELL AS OFFSHORE.  AS A RESULT...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ E OF 
90W INCLUDING COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 

THE REMNANT OF GENEVIEVE NEAR 18N133W SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS 
NW...INFLUENCED BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS SAT AROUND 135W 
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO 
LOSE ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
SO AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE DEEP ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE AZ SHOULD STRETCH ITS 
RIDGE AXIS W BRIEFLY BEFORE THE INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORTING THE 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 123W EATS INTO ITS W EDGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL 
HI CENTER RETREATS NE TO THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY. 

$$
SCHAUER CLARK