000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281615
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 05N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COMBINES WITH CUT OFF CYCLONE OVER JAMAICA TO 
PRODUCE SMALL AREA OF DIFFLUENCE OVER SRN HALF OF WAVE AXIS 
ENHANCING ITS CONVECTION.  BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 
NM S OF ITCZ E OF 87W HAS ITS ADVECTED DEBRIS FOLLOWING WAVE 
PATH.  NRN HALF OF AXIS UNDER CUT OFF CYCLONE INFLUENCE IS 
DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. 

SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 113W MOVING W AT 10 KT.  WHILE UPPER 
ENVIRONMENT NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT A GOOD LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENT FLOW OF SUCH A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS HAS MINOR 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION GOING.  WAVE MOVING INTO DRIER 
MORE STABLE AREA WITH COOLER SST AND APPEARS DOOMED TO REMAIN 
STILLBORN.
  
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N80W TO 08N88W TO 05N100W TO 13N112W TO 
12N126W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 93W TO 100W AND FROM 02N TO 10N E 
OF 87W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 119W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SE ARIZONA WILL 
EXTEND ITS CONTROL OVER E PAC WITH ITS AXIS REACHING 17N140W.  
VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS N OF 15N W OF 124W CHOKING THE 
REMNANTS OF GENEVIEVE...NOW A 1010 MB LOW PRES...OUT OF ANY 
CONVECTION LEFT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS...ENHANCED BY TROPICAL WAVE FLOW...WILL 
DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT 12 HR AS WAVE INFLUENCE DECREASES.  WEAK 
LOW PRES FORMED AT 06N95W HAS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOW 
AND UPPER LEVELS TO STRENGTHEN BUT APPEARS DOOMED BY DECOUPLING 
FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HR.  LARGE LONG PERIOD 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS CONTINUE AFFECTING REGION S OF 10N FROM 
95W-125W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES