000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W N OF 07N MOVING W AT 10 KT.  THE WAVE 
IS CURRENTLY UNDER A REGION OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON 
THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND WITHIN AN AREA 
POSSESSING DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.  THIS SHOULD HELP THE WAVE 
MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT AS IT 
MOVES W...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO DIMINISH AND THE 
SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER IN THE WAKE OF GENEVIEVE.

TO THE W...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 82W N OF 05N.  
CURRENTLY...THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE.  THIS CONVECTION...AS WELL AS THE 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF CONTIGUOUS COAST 
OF COLUMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 02N AND 09N...IS SUPPORTED BY 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA 
AND THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NW SOUTH 
AMERICA. 
  
  
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS LIES ALONG 06N84W TO 08N100W TO 12N112W TO 07N129W TO 
09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN 
BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AND BETWEEN 81W AND 
87W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 140 NM 
BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 
120 NM S BETWEEN 134W AND 140W.


...DISCUSSION...
A FORMIDABLE UPPER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W ALONG 30 N THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE TROUGHING THAT HAS 
PERSISTED ALONG 135W THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS A 
RESULT...MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AWAY FROM THE NORTH 
AMERICAN CONTINENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF 20N AND SHOULD 
PRIMARILY FOCUS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE 
REGION.  

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 07N93W IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE W AT 12 KT AND BRIEFLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT.  CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.

THE DEEP E FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO HAS BEGUN TO SLACKEN...WITH THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2358 
UTC SHOWING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF WINDS OVER 20 KT NEAR THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO.  
 
$$
SCHAUER CLARK