000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE AT 16.6N 125.3W AT 1800 UTC MOVING 
W AT 15 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT.  
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1008 MB.  NHC HAS ISSUED ITS LAST OFFICIAL 
FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR GENEVIEVE UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC.  WITH NO DISCERNIBLE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER COOL PACIFIC 
WATERS...GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 0000 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 109W N OF 05N CONTINUES MOVING W AT 15 KT.  
THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY UNDER A REGION OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THIS 
SHOULD HELP THE WAVE MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY 
OR SO...BUT AS IT MOVES W...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO 
DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER IN THE WAKE OF 
GENEVIEVE.

TO THE W...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 81W.  
CURRENTLY...THERE IS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N 
OF 03N E OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND SW 
COLUMBIA.  THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND THE BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NW SOUTH AMERICA. 
  
  
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS LIES ALONG 08N82W TO 08N102W TO 11N116W TO 07N130W TO 
09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN 
BE FOUND WITHIN 150 NM N AND 250 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
88W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND 
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 135W.


...DISCUSSION...
A FORMIDABLE UPPER TO MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO AND THE SW CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W ALONG 30 N THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE TROUGHING THAT HAS 
PERSISTED ALONG 135W THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS A 
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER AWAY FROM THE NORTH 
AMERICAN CONTINENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN S OF 15N AND SHOULD 
PRIMARILY FOCUS ON THE TROPICAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE 
REGION.  

A SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N91W IS FORECAST TO 
BRIEFLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THE GLOBAL 
MODELS DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. 
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION IS FIRING NEAR THIS LOW AND TO ITS W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 150 NM N AND 250 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 
104W. 

THE DEEP E FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  
 
$$
SCHAUER CLARK