000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271610
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE AT 17.0N 124.9W AT 1500 UTC MOVING 
W AT 11 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND HAVE DROPPED TO 25 GUSTS TO 
35 KT.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.  COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY STABLE AIR HAS 
TAKING ITS TOLL IN THE SYSTEM.  GENEVIEVE HAS LOST ITS DEEP 
CONVECTION AND EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW PRES WITHIN NEXT 
48 HR. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W N OF 04N CONTINUES MOVING W AT 15 KT.  
RIDGE SE OF WAVE AXIS COMBINES WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH NW OF AXIS 
TO CREATE AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST N OF ITCZ ENHANCING DEEP 
CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING WAVE.  CONDITIONS ALOFT NOT TOTALLY 
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND PLENTY OF WARM MOIST TROPICAL 
AIR STILL AHEAD OF WAVE...BUT WAVE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE INTO MORE 
ADVERSE CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD ARREST ANY CHANCE OF GETTING 
BETTER ORGANIZATION.  

SECOND WAVE JUST ENTERED E PAC ALONG 79W.  ANTICYCLONIC UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW ENHANCING OUTFLOW OF DEEP CONVECTION E OF 81W.
CONDITIONS ALOFT SEEM FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUING STRENGTHENING OF 
WAVE FOR NEXT 24 HR...AFTER WHICH MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS UPPER 
CONDITIONS MORE ADVERSE AND DEFLATES CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT.    
  
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS LIES ALONG 07N81W TO 08N84W TO 06N92W TO 11N104W TO 
11N109W TO 13N120W TO 08N135W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 91W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 
87W-108W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NRN MEXICO HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND SW TO SECOND SMALL ANTICYCLONE AT 18N135W FORCING 
SUBSIDING AIR WITHIN 4 DEG FROM AXIS KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
N OF 16N W OF 119W.  

PREVIOUSLY PERSISTENT ANTICYCLONE ALOFT OVER WRN CARIBBEAN... 
SAME ONE ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE ALONG 79W... 
EXPECTED TO BE FORCED E BY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ATLC TROUGH 
DECOUPLING IT FROM...AND CONSEQUENTLY WEAKENING...TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 79W.   

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
SHORT LIVED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS SHOULD BE DISCONTINUED 
WITHIN NEXT 12 HR AS HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
DISSIPATES.  GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOLLOW SUIT A DAY LATER.

LARGE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS MOVE ACROSS E PAC S 
OF 10N E OF 125W EXPECTED TO PEAK IN 24 HR THEN SUBSIDE.
 
$$
WALLY BARNES