000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.5 WEST OR ABOUT 850 
NM...1575 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AT
27/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE 
DROPPED TO 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GENEVIEVE IS 
VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RECENT BURST 
OF A CONVECTIVE CELL NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. GENEVIEVE IS 
EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 
12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE EARLIER ALONG 99W HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO ALONG 105W 
N OF 05N. ESTIMATED MOTION IS W AT 12-15 KT. RELOCATION WAS BASED
ON TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD FURTHER W ALONG 105W. IN 
ADDITION A RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED DECENT 
TURNING IN THE SFC WINDS ALONG 105W BUT ALSO SUGGESTED THE WAVE 
MAY BE ORIENTED FROM SSW TO NNE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120-150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE 
AXIS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AND THE ITCZ. 
  
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS LIES ALONG 08N81W TO 07N98W TO 13N115W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 89W AND 94W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 
96W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 112W...AND N OF 04N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND 
E OF 81W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GAP WIND AREAS ARE RATHER ACTIVE THIS MORNING WITH DEEP EASTERLY 
FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA WITH NE 
WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. A RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION 
ASCAT PASS COUPLED WITH NIGHTTIME SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATED N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE 
ORDER OF 20-25 KT. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED 
TO DROP BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS. 
THE MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ALSO APPEARS 
TO HAVE PLAYED A HAND IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF PANAMA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
CAN BE FOUND IN THIS AREA AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS INDICATED ALONG THE PANAMANIAN COAST TO 04N AND E 
OF 81W. 

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF DOLLY HAS 
SPLIT IN TWO...WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST ENERGY PASSING W THROUGH 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH THE 
NORTHERNMOST AREA OF ENERGY FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. 

A MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST IS EATING INTO THE 
RIDGE N OF GENEVIEVE.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ITS 
REMNANTS WRAP NW AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW. THIS 
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF 
GENEVIEVE TO THE N AS THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS 
TURNED MORE WWD IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE...ASIDE 
FROM GENEVIEVE...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS 
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 12N AND W OF 125W.
 
$$
COBB