000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270346
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE NEAR 16.9N 122.5W AT 27/0300 UTC MOVING 
W AT 11 KT.  GENEVIEVE IS APPROXIMATELY 800 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 
CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 GUSTS TO 50 
KT.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE HAS 
RAPIDLY DETERIORATED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING 
IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES.


...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 05N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE 
CONTINUES TO TRACK ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY 
PASSING OFF THE SW MEXICAN COAST.  CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX 
CAN PRIMARILY BE FOUND IN THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...TO THE W OF 
THE TROPICAL WAVE.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FOCUSED BETWEEN 05N-17N BETWEEN 100W-110W.  

  
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS LIES ALONG 07N83W TO 11N105W TO 11N115W TO 09N126W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 320 
NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 114W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 114W AND 124W.


...DISCUSSION...
DEEP E FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS BLEEDING THROUGH CENTRAL 
AMERICA TODAY...WITH QUIKSCAT IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING SHOWING 
WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE LEE OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  IN 
ADDITION...THE STRONG E FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ALSO APPEARS 
TO HAVE PLAYED A HAND IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF PANAMA.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
CAN BE FOUND IN THIS AREA AND NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ALONG THE NW PANAMA COAST N OF 
07N BETWEEN 80W AND 93W.

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF DOLLY HAS 
SPLIT IN TWO...WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST ENERGY PASSING W THROUGH 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE BAJA.  THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
NOTED EARLIER HERE HAS DISSIPATED.

A MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST IS EATING INTO THE 
RIDGE N OF GENEVIEVE.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
AND ITS REMNANTS WRAP NW AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW.  AT 
THE MOMENT...THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE 
INFLUENCING GENEVIEVE TO THE N.

ELSEWHERE...ASIDE FROM GENEVIEVE...SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER MUCH 
OF THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 120W.
 
$$
SCHAUER CLARK