000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE AT 17.3N 121.3W AT 26/2100 UTC MOVING W 
AT 10 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 GUSTS TO 55 KT.  MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM OF ITS 
CENTER AS IT PASSES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE 
FORECAST TRACK CARRIES GENEVIEVE INTO EVEN COLDER WATERS OVER 
THE NEXT DAY.


...TROPICAL WAVES... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 05N MOVING W 10 KT.  THIS WAVE 
CONTINUES TO TRACK ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY 
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  CONVECTION WITH THIS COMPLEX CAN 
PRIMARILY BE FOUND IN THE AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...TO THE W 
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

  
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG AXIS 07N82W TO 10N95W TO 12N110W TO 09N121W TO 
10N130W.  SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS E OF 91W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM OF AXIS FROM 100W TO 114W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AXIS BETWEEN 116W 
AND 120W. 


...DISCUSSION...
DEEP E FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS BLEEDING THROUGH CENTRAL 
AMERICA TODAY...WITH QUIKSCAT IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING SHOWING 
WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE LEE OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  IN 
ADDITION...THE STRONG E FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ALSO APPEARS 
TO HAVE PLAYED A HAND IN DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW IN THE 
VICINITY OF GULF OF PANAMA.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CAN 
BE FOUND IN THIS AREA AND NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CAN CURRENTLY BE FOUND BETWEEN 04N-10N BETWEEN 81W TO 
91W...PRIMARILY OFF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN 
PANAMA.  

THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF DOLLY HAS 
SPLIT IN TWO...WITH THE SOUTHERN-MOST ENERGY PASSING W INTO THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT THE MOMENT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
CAN BE FOUND MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS A 
RESULT.  

ELSEWHERE...A MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST IS 
EATING INTO THE RIDGE N OF GENEVIEVE AT THE MOMENT...BUT THIS 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ITS REMNANTS WRAP NW AROUND THE 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW.  THEREFORE...LOOK FOR GENEVIEVE TO 
CONTINUE ON ITS SLIGHTLY N OF W TRACK FOR NOW BEFORE THE RIDGE 
REBUILDS TO ITS N TOMORROW. 
 
$$
SCHAUER CLARK