000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 118.1W...OR ABOUT 590 
NM...1085 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 26/0300 
UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER WHILE 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 
NM N AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLES.


...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 05N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW TO THE W OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORTS A REGION OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON ITS SE PERIPHERY E OF 845W...WELL TO 
THE SE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 06N W OF 84W TO THE 
COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  

  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 10N95W TO 
11N112W TO 10N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND 
WITHIN 150 NM W OF 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 250 NM S AND 120 NM N FROM 86W TO 
107W. 


...DISCUSSION...

A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 135W IS LIFTING THE 
REMNANT OF FAUSTO NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH 
APPROACHING THE W COAST.  THE INVERTED MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING 
S OF FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BE LEFT BEHIND AND CONTINUE W OUT OF 
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE.  TO THE E...EXPECT 
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE N OF W TRACK AS IT 
ENCOUNTERS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ITS NW.

THE RIDGE OVER THE SW AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ALSO BEING 
COMPROMISED...IN THIS CASE BY THE REMNANT OF DOLLY TRACKING 
THRU NW MEXICO.  EXPECT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY SHEAR TODAY...WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY 
PASSING N INTO THE NEW MEXICO WHILE THE SOUTHERN ENERGY TRACKS W 
INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS SOUTHERN ENERGY...IN 
CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY TRIGGERING THE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE W CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND A BROAD AREA OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL HELP THE CAUSE FOR CONVECTION OVER 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MEXICO 
SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS PATH TO SEA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 
TROPICAL WAVE IN TOW ON ITS E SIDE.  LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO 
FAVOR THE AREA SE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR COSTA RICA AND 
PANAMA FOR NOW...IN THE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE.  WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 20 KT IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS STRONG NE TO E FLOW 
BLEEDS THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE 
TROPICAL WAVE.  
 
$$
SCHAUER CLARK