000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 116.8W...OR ABOUT 540 
NM...990 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 25/2100 
UTC MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITH GENEVIEVE IS CONFINED WITHIN 120 NM FROM 
CENTER...WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FOUND MAINLY WITHIN 70 
NM S SEMICIRCLE.  


...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 05N MOVING W 10 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW TO THE W OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE SUPPORTS A REGION OF UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON ITS SE PERIPHERY W OF 85W...TO THE SE OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 78W-85W.  

  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N80W TO 10N100W TO 09N 118W TO 
08N126W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION  
FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 78W-85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM OF ITCZ FROM 92W-110W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF ITCZ FROM 
120W-126W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM 
ELSEWHERE W OF 110W.


...DISCUSSION...

A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 135W IS LIFTING THE 
REMNANT OF FAUSTO NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH 
APPROACHING THE W COAST.  TO THE S...THE INVERTED MID LEVEL 
TROUGH TRACKING WITH FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BE LEFT BEHIND AND 
CONTINUE W OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE.  TO THE 
E...EXPECT HURRICANE GENEVIEVE TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE N OF W 
TRACK AS IT ENCOUNTERS THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ITS N.

THE RIDGE OVER THE SW AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ALSO BEING 
COMPROMISED...IN THIS CASE BY THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY TRACKING 
THRU NW MEXICO.  EXPECT THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY 
ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY TO JOIN UP WITH ENERGY TO ITS S OVER W 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND PUSH W THRU THE GULF OF CA THIS WEEKEND.  A 
BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS MID LEVEL 
ENERGY SHOULD HELP THE CAUSE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MEXICO 
SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS PATH TO SEA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 
TROPICAL WAVE IN TOW ON ITS E SIDE.  LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO 
FAVOR THE AREA SE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR COSTA RICA AND 
PANAMA FOR NOW...IN THE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO OVER 20 KT IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS STRONG NE FLOW BLEEDS 
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE CARIBBEAN.  
 
$$
SCHAUER CLARK