000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 113.8W...OR ABOUT 
490 NM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 25/0300 UTC MOVING WNW 
AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER WITH NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 100 NM IN NW QUADRANT.


...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 04N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
TRAILING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFYING AS 
IT PASSES INTO THE E PACIFIC. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE HAS 
DISSIPATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT AN AREA OF 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS 
LEADING SOUTHERN EDGE FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 89W-93W.

  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N80W TO 08N97W TO 11N110W TO 12N 
120W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 200 NM OF THIS LINE.


...DISCUSSION...

THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CURRENTLY 
APPROACHING 30N WILL BE LITTLE MATCH FOR THE FORMIDABLE RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS W ACROSS THE SW AND EXPECTED 
TO EXPAND FARTHER W INTO THE PACIFIC ALONG 32N OVER THE NEXT DAY 
OR SO.  THE MID LEVEL REMNANT OF FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED 
W ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS EXPANDING RIDGE AXIS.  THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH AND THE IMPACT OF THE 
SYSTEM ON THE SEAS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD PREVENT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN LATITUDE FOR TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WHICH 
WILL REMAIN TUCKED TO ITS S.  

FARTHER EAST...THE DEEP CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION DOLLY WILL MEANDER W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND 
CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN MAINLY S OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH 
TOMORROW.  THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT OF DOLLY SHOULD CROSS THE 
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHERE ITS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH THE 
SURGE OF MOISTURE PASSING N UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON THE 
BACKSIDE OF GENEVIEVE...WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS OVER THE 
WEEKEND.

TO THE SOUTH...CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW FROM THE SE TO S IS 
DOMINANT S OF 08N...WHILE NE TO E TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAILS IN 
MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 08N AND 20N ASIDE FROM THE FEATURES 
DISCUSSED ABOVE.  STRONG NE TO E FLOW TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE 
CURRENTLY PASSING THRU HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR SHOULD BLEED W 
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...YIELDING WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS 
GREATER THAN 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  

$$
SCHAUER CLARK