000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242139
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 112.9W...OR ABOUT 
490 NM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 24/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 
6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. GENEVIEVE APPEARS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS IT BATTLES THROUGH A REGION OF 
BELOW OPTIMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A REGION OF NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHING 80 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 
100 NM ELSEWHERE.


...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 04N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE 
TRANSVERSES THE ITCZ...WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION W OF THE 
WAVE AND WITHIN 250 NM OF THE ITCZ E OF 99W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE FOUND E OF THE WAVE GENERALLY 
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N80W TO 09N100W TO 12N120W TO 
09N130W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
06N-12N BETWEEN 115W-139W AND ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG FROM 
06N-12N BETWEEN 96W-108W.


...DISCUSSION...

THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC CURRENTLY 
APPROACHING 30N WILL BE LITTLE MATCH FOR THE FORMIDABLE RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS W ACROSS THE SW AND EXPECTED 
TO EXPAND FARTHER W INTO THE PACIFIC ALONG 32N OVER THE NEXT DAY 
OR SO.  THE MID LEVEL REMNANT OF FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED 
W ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS EXPANDING RIDGE AXIS AS THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WEAKENS.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD 
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN LATITUDE FOR TROPICAL STORM 
GENEVIEVE WHICH WILL REMAIN TUCKED TO ITS S.  

FARTHER EAST...THE DEEP CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION DOLLY WILL MEANDER W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND 
CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN MAINLY S OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH 
TOMORROW.  THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT OF DOLLY SHOULD CROSS THE 
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHERE ITS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH THE 
SURGE OF MOISTURE PASSING N UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON THE 
BACKSIDE OF GENEVIEVE...WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION 
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS OVER THE 
WEEKEND.

TO THE SOUTH...CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW FROM THE SE TO S IS 
DOMINANT S OF 08N...WHILE NE TO E TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAILS IN 
MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 08N AND 20N ASIDE FROM THE FEATURES 
DISCUSSED ABOVE.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK