000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241524 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUL 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 112.7W...OR ABOUT 480 NM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 24/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOL WATERS LEFT BEHIND BY ELIDA AND FAUSTO AND SO HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO JUST UNDER 10 KT...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE CLOUD PATTERN TO BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. THIS MAY GIVE THE SYSTEM POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES BACK OVER WARMER WATERS PRIOR TO THE SHEAR STRENGTHENING AGAIN AFTER 2 DAYS OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S AND 60 NM N SEMICIRCLES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 04N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NICARAGUA WITH A FEW CELLS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST. CONVECTION ALSO LIES OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N78W TO 10N100W TO 11N124W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG N OF 02N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 85W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 04N87W TO 07N95W TO 12N99W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W-137W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICS... A FAIRLY STAGNANT SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA WSW TO OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NW MEXICO. TWO MID/UPPER LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...ONE LOCATED OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SONORA NEAR 30N110W AND THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CIRCULATION OF T.S. DOLLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...BUT MAY BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY SAT AS MOISTURE FROM DOLLY MOVES W ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. FARTHER W...A SHARP POSITIVELY- TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIES NW OF THE AREA AND IS PRODUCING SW/W FLOW ALOFT N OF 20N W OF 125W. THE REMNANT LOW OF FAUSTO IS LOCATED NEAR 24N128W MOVING W 10-15 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1011 MB...BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO THE STABLE AIR MASS AND COOL OCEAN WATERS. TROPICS... DEEP MOISTURE HAS BEEN CREEPING EVER SO SLOWLY WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL BELT. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO WWD TO NEAR T.S. GENEVIEVE...AND THEN A NARROWER BELT LIES BETWEEN 04N-15N W OF 116W. THIS IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ITCZ OVER WRN AREAS WHERE IT HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. CLOSE BY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 16N136W AND IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N W OF 124W. FARTHER E...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRIMARILY NE/EASTERLY EXCEPT WHERE A SHARP INVERTED TROUGH LIES ALONG 87W. $$ BERG