000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 110.1W...OR ABOUT 
410 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 23/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 8 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 9974 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1314 UTC SHOWED NON-RAIN 
CONTAMINATED WIND ESTIMATES UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS FAR 
AS 60 NM FROM THE CENTER OF GENEVIEVE IN THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SW 
AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES.


...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 82W N OF 05N MOVING W 
15 KT. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITH THE WAVE.  THE 
FIRST IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA TO 
THEIR WESTERN COASTS.  THE SECOND IS REGION OF WEAKENING 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 82W-87W.
 
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 08N82W TO 06N87W TO 13N102W TO 
12N119W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 100W-104W.  ELSEWHERE...MAINLY 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM S OF THE ITCZ.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS 
STATES EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W OVER THE SOUTHERN CA TO N OF THE 
REMNANT LOW FROM T.D. FAUSTO.  AS A RESULT...THE 1009 MB REMNANT 
LOW FROM FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A MAINLY W PATH S OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS.  THIS SAME RIDGE IS INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
NORTHWARD PROGRESS FOR TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE AS WELL.  

ELSEWHERE...DOMINANT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND S OF 
07N AND NE TO E TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN 07N AND 15N WITH THE 
EXCEPTIONS OF FEATURES NOTED ABOVE. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF 
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 108W-112W.  

$$
SCHAUER CLARK